Where did AAP falter after a decade in power?
Nasir Khuehami
The 2025 Delhi Assembly election has rewritten the political script of the national capital, delivering a stunning verdict that brings the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back to power after 27 years. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had enjoyed an uninterrupted decade-long rule, has suffered a dramatic electoral rout. This electoral outcome is more than just a regime change—it leaves AAP at a crossroads, uncertain about its path forward.
For AAP, this defeat is not merely an electoral setback but a political and moral blow. Its two key leaders and faces—party national convenor and former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, along with former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia—lost their respective seats. Their losses signify more than just individual defeats. On the other hand, the BJP’s resurgence in Delhi—after nearly three decades—not only breaches AAP’s stronghold but also reinforces its dominance in urban electoral politics. For AAP, the road ahead appears treacherous. The party, which was trying to position itself as a credible alternative to both the BJP and Congress stands at crossroads. with this defeat, AAP’s future ambitions—including its expansion beyond Delhi and Punjab—stand severely jeopardized. Beyond AAP’s decline, this verdict delivers a serious blow to the INDIA alliance, which is likely to witness internal tussles and fractures in the coming days.
This election has been different for Kejriwal compared to his previous campaigns and the last two elections. Unlike his past aggressive approach, this time, he has been largely on the defensive—engaging more in photo-op exercises than in setting the narrative for his party.
AAP lacked a direct benefit scheme, allowing the BJP to capitalize on this gap with concrete welfare promises. The BJP’s manifesto pledged ₹2,500 per month for women, ₹21,000 for pregnant women, and pensions for senior citizens, all set for rollout on March 8, International Women’s Day, mirroring Maharashtra’s model. In contrast, while AAP promised ₹2,100 per month for women, its commitment lacked clarity and urgency. Governance fatigue and the absence of fresh welfare measures weakened AAP’s appeal.
Moreover, the BJP and Congress countered AAP’s credibility by highlighting unfulfilled promises in Punjab, where AAP has been in power for more than two years. This narrative gained traction, reinforcing voter skepticism. Another key BJP move was the ₹500 LPG subsidy, which resonated strongly with Delhi’s residents, especially during the winter months.
Furthermore, the BJP assured voters that existing AAP welfare schemes would not be discontinued, with Prime Minister Modi himself making this commitment. This neutralized AAP’s claim that a BJP victory would end subsidies. By reassuring beneficiaries while offering new incentives, the BJP successfully undercut AAP’s welfare-driven appeal, making Kejriwal’s warnings seem unconvincing. Beyond just subsidies, the BJP further sweetened the deal by promising free LPG
cylinders for the poor and women on Holi and Diwali, reinforcing its pro-welfare narrative. In contrast, AAP struggled to counter this, as it lacked a similar direct economic incentive in its campaign. While AAP banked on its decade-long governance record, BJP’s targeted welfare promises, coupled with an assurance of immediate implementation, gave it an upper hand in voter perception.
Another underlying cause behind AAP’s loss of power was its prolonged tussle with the BJP- led Centre and the Lieutenant Governor (LG). For years, the governance of Delhi was mired in conflicts—ranging from bureaucratic control to the implementation of government schemes, clearance of crucial files, and court battles over administrative authority. This constant friction not only paralyzed key governance functions but also created a perception that AAP was more focused on confrontation and playing the victim card than delivering results.
While AAP projected itself as a victim of BJP’s interference, the opposition successfully turned this narrative against it. The BJP and Congress argued that instead of finding solutions, AAP had used the Centre-LG conflict as an excuse for its failures. This perception deepened as essential services, such as water supply, waste management, and infrastructure projects, remained stuck in bureaucratic red tape. The electorate, instead of sympathizing with AAP, saw the party as ineffective in governance, leading to growing disillusionment.
Moreover, the constant political and legal battles disrupted the smooth implementation of welfare schemes. Delhi’s common citizens—especially the lower and middle classes—felt the impact of administrative instability, as policy paralysis led to delays in crucial initiatives and Major Projects.
Another key factor behind AAP’s debacle in Delhi was its failure to address the twin issues of water quality and garbage management—both of which became major pain points for residents. While it is true that the AAP government provided free water, the bigger concern was its quality. Complaints about contaminated and unfit drinking water plagued the government throughout its tenure, raising serious questions about its ability to ensure basic public health. Mere continuity of supply wasn’t enough; the failure to provide clean and safe water remained a persistent grievance, one that the opposition effectively capitalized on.
The Yamuna remains an emotional issue for Delhiites, especially those living along its banks. The AAP government repeatedly promised to clean the river, but despite multiple deadlines and assurances, little visible progress was made. The worsening condition of the Yamuna not only affected the capital’s environment but also disrupted drinking water supplies in several areas, reinforcing perceptions of administrative inefficiency. The BJP and Congress successfully turned this into a campaign issue, accusing AAP of neglect and broken promises.
The functioning—or rather, the dysfunction—of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) was another critical issue that hurt AAP. Despite winning the MCD elections in 2022 with a strong mandate, the party failed to translate its victory into governance. For nearly two years, from December 2022 to December 2024, no substantial work was done. The city remained plagued by overflowing garbage, broken roads, and sanitation crises—issues that AAP had promised to fix but failed to address.
AAP’s real problem began the moment it won the MCD elections. Until then, it conveniently blamed the BJP-led Centre, the LG, and bureaucratic interference for administrative failures. But once in power, the party had no one else to hold responsible. Their pledge to deliver a clean, world-class city remained unfulfilled, and MCD remained in limbo rather than being a success story that could boost AAP’s governance credentials. Even though AAP accused the LG of creating hurdles, the public perception was that the party had wasted its tenure fighting political battles instead of delivering results. No major projects took off in these two years, and by the time AAP attempted to accelerate governance in late 2024, it was already too late. The BJP and Congress
effectively used this non-performance against them, further cementing the perception that AAP had lost its governance edge.
A political subplot unfolded in Delhi’s elections: while the Congress failed to win a single seat, it significantly weakened AAP’s prospects. In 13 constituencies, the Congress candidates secured more votes than the margin by which the BJP defeated AAP. Notably, Congress even finished second in one seat. Had AAP and Congress contested as allies, multiple seats in Delhi could have witnessed a much closer battle. The BJP and Congress effectively built a strong narrative against Arvind Kejriwal, portraying him as a leader who had betrayed the very ethos of “Aam Aadmi” politics. They repeatedly questioned how a Chief Minister, who rose to power on the promise of
simplicity and honesty, ended up residing in a lavish bungalow renovated at a staggering cost of ₹40 crore.
Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi capitalized on this issue, dubbing Kejriwal’s residence as; Sheesh Mahal of Aam Aadmi.” This attack resonated deeply with voters, especially the lower and middle-class electorate, who once saw Kejriwal as their representative. The BJP and Congress used this controversy to expose what they called AAP’s hypocrisy—arguing that the party, which once criticized politicians for their lavish lifestyles, was now indulging in the same privileges. For many, Kejriwal’s Sheesh Mahal symbolized a disconnect between AAP’s leadership and the struggles of ordinary Delhiites, further eroding the party’s credibility.
The middle class played a decisive role in the Delhi elections, significantly contributing to AAP’s loss and BJP’s resounding victory. The high voter turnout among the middle class worked like magic for the BJP, while AAP’s image took a severe hit. Despite the Centre’s continued distribution of free rations across the country, including in Delhi, there was a growing perception among middle-class voters that while welfare schemes benefited millions; they were the ones footing the bill through taxes. Many in this segment questioned the sustainability of distributing free rations to 800 million people indefinitely, a sentiment that the BJP successfully tapped into. The Union Budget presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also played a crucial role in shaping this sentiment. With inflation and the cost of living on the rise, the budget’s middle-class-friendly announcements resonated strongly with Delhi voters. The most impactful measure was the BJP’s promise of making income up to ₹12 lakh tax- free—a move that struck a chord with the salaried class, professionals, and small business owners who had long sought tax relief.
This budget acted as a shot in the arm for the BJP, strengthening its appeal among urban voters who were looking for economic relief rather than just welfare schemes. In the end, this shift in middle-class sentiment proved to be a game-changer, consolidating BJP’s support and delivering it a historic win in Delhi.
AAP’s biggest weakness has always been its lack of a clear and consistent ideological foundation. Despite being in power in Delhi for over a decade and forming a government in Punjab, the party remains ideologically ambiguous. Politics without ideology is a betrayal of its very purpose, and AAP’s failure to define itself beyond populist slogans and governance promises is now catching up with it.
Every major political force in India has a well-defined ideological foundation that guides its politics, cadre-building, and long-term vision. The BJP thrives on right-wing conservatism and Hindu nationalism, the Congress has historically championed progressive and secular values, the Left remains rooted in Marxism and labor rights, while parties like the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal draw strength from socialist ideals and backward-class empowerment. Conversely, AAP’s politics seem to revolve around short-term populist measures without a deeper ideological core. Anti- corruption is a cause, not an ideology. Free education and healthcare are policies, not principles. These are not enough to sustain a political movement in a country where
ideological commitment defines survival and resurgence.
For over a decade, AAP has relied on rhetoric rather than substantive ideological positioning. While it has been successful in electoral battles, it has failed to build a robust cadre, engage in grassroots mobilization, or sustain a long-term political legacy. This is precisely why it struggles to fight the BJP effectively, as ideological battles cannot be fought with mere governance promises. Also, a party that tries to imitate the BJP on Hindutva will inevitably lose to the original. AAP’s impending defeat in the 2025 Delhi elections will serve as a reminder that in Indian politics, ideology is the foundation of survival. Even a party reduced to zero seats can bounce back if it has an ideological anchor. But those who keep shifting positions, chasing opportunities, and avoiding
ideological clarity eventually fades into irrelevance. In the cutthroat world of politics, opportunism is often seen as nothing more than a fraud.
The claim that the Muslim vote consolidated entirely in favor of AAP also does not hold true. In reality, the Muslim vote in Delhi was fragmented. In Okhla and Mustafabad, Congress managed to secure only its core cadre votes, failing to gain broader traction. AIMIM made significant inroads in Okhla and Mustafabad, securing over 39,000 and 33,000 votes, respectively. Asaduddin Owaisi personally campaigned there, held multiple rallies, and effectively shaped the “Jail narrative.” However, AIMIM could not win. AAP lost the Mustafabad seat due to the fragmentation of the Muslim vote, with AIMIM receiving a significant share of Muslim votes this time. While AAP still received substantial support from the Muslim community, however, there was a growing sentiment on the ground that the party had alienated Muslim voters over the years due to its silence on critical issues such as CAA-NRC, the Delhi riots, bulldozer politics, and lynchings. This alienation has cost the party dearly.
AAP’s 2025 defeat in Delhi is more than just an electoral loss; it is a fundamental crisis that threatens its political relevance. With its governance model under scrutiny, its anti- corruption plank weakened, and its top leadership embroiled in legal battles, the party faces an existential challenge. Without a significant reinvention, AAP risks political marginalization—not just in Delhi but across India—raising serious questions about its long-term survival as a credible national force. Delhi Elections defeat further weakens AAP’s claim of being the primary challenger to the BJP at the national level, contributing to the broader disarray within the opposition. As AAP grapples with its most severe political crisis, the road to reinvention appears increasingly difficult, with the risk of political irrelevance looming large.
Nasir Khuehami is the National Convenor of Jammu and Kashmir Students Association. He has Pursued Masters in Conflict Analysis and Peacebuilding from Jamia Millia
Islamia, New Delhi. He can be reached out at khuehamiayaan@gmail.com.
